Our Activities

Mathematical Modeling of Novel HIV Interventions in Asia

Professors involved

Stuart Gilmour, Professor, Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. Sgilmour@slcn.ac.jp


This project uses mathematical modeling to investigate novel interventions to prevent the spread of HIV in Asia. It focuses particularly on HIV in special and hidden populations at risk of epidemic growth, such as men who have sex with men, sex workers, and injecting drug users. As part of this project we develop new mathematical models to describe the HIV epidemic and use them to estimate the epidemiological effectiveness of novel HIV prevention strategies such as pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP), post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), and enhanced biomedical and behavioral interventions. We also assess the cost-effectiveness of these interventions and make public health and policy recommendations.

Students involved

Phuong Nguyen
Yijing Wang


Associate Professor Jinghua Li, School of Public Health, Sun Yat Sen University, China
Dr. Junko Tanuma, AIDS Clinical Centre, National Centre for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo

Grant funding

National Centre for Global Health Medicine grant-in-aid of scientific research, 2018 – 2020.
Health and Labour Sciences Research Grant on HIV/AIDS policy, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 2019-2022
National Science Foundation of China, Young Investigators Grant, 2018-2019


Gilmour S, Peng L, Li J, Oka S, Tanuma J. New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model. Scientific Reports. 2020; 10: 18187.

Hill A, Distefano A, Gilmour S, Bavinton B, Hidaka Y, Bourne A, Armstrong G. Social correlates of recent suicidal ideation among men who have sex with men in greater Tokyo. Sexuality Research and Social Policy. 2020; Online First.

Nguyen P, Gilmour S, Mai P, Nguyen T, Tanuma J, Nguyen H. Factors associated with high-risk behaviors of people newly diagnosed with HIV/AIDS: results from a cross-sectional study in Vietnam. AIDS Care. 2020; Online First.

Cao W, Sun S, Peng L, Gu J, Hao C, Li J, Wei D, Gilmour S, Li J. Low willingness to pay for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. BMC Public Health. 2020; 20:337

Gilmour S, Mai P, Nguyen P, Dhungel B, Tomizawa M, Nguyen H. Progress towards Health for All: Time to End Discrimination and Marginalization. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(5): 1696

Wei D, Hou F, Hao C, Gu J, Rubee D, Cao W, Peng L, Gilmour S, Wang K, Li J. Prevalence of intimate partner violence and associated factors among men who have sex with men in China. Journal of Interpersonal Violence. 2019; In Press.

Li J, Peng L, Gilmour S, Gu J, Ruan Y, Zou H, Hao C, Hao Y, Lau JTF. A mathematical model of biomedical interventions for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in China. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2018; 18:600